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At first, Donald Trump seemed to take a strong approach concerning Ukraine. After making statements of "serious repercussions" last August if Putin persisted blocking peace talks, Trump finally imposed substantial penalties on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, with his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for Ukraine, that was developed by both nations' representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Military Action

This plan would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's political freedom in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that same autonomy. Seen as a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate past, the former president seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, implying giving Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the ruler. However, Russia's war is not merely about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in status the presently divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would compel the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a decade of warfare, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses critically weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, giving Putin a clear path to the capital if he subsequently opt to renew the war.

Military Reductions

Then, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to reduce the numbers of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's initiative places no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's democratically elected administration as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Every radical doctrine and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that Putin has broken similar treaties in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should anyone have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the initiative warns of a "decisive unified military response" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics range from vague to alarming. The plan would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thereby blocking the security presence, presumptively commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Russia from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However in contrast to a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Western powers, like the US administration, to respond with force to Russia's aggression, something they have {not