The most severe projected effects of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by scientists, encompassing a scorching 4C rise in temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in sea levels. A separate possibility foresees a drop of 6C in temperatures following the failure of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset agriculture and power requirements.
Possible Events, Not Predictions
These effects, a number of which are associated with climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but possible. The researchers explained that these scenarios plugged a hole in forecasting that had left the UK not ready for extreme outcomes.
"The climate extremes we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are plausible," stated the professor who directed the research. "The UK has been planning lacking the tools to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to plan for future conditions they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore."
A Range of Harsh Climate Projections
A further series of severe models details the projected severity of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These indicate that thermometer readings could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be 300% of normal levels.
The chance of the catastrophic events coming to pass remains uncertain due to a lack of certainty about what action will be taken to tackle global heating and how the Earth's systems will react. This approach was likened to defence planning or scenario planning for financial systems.
Major Possibility Elements
- Severe Heating: Planetary heating rising well above 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action collapses or if vicious cycles including the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source emit its enormous store of carbon. This would result in severe and lengthy heat domes and water shortages plaguing the UK in summer.
- Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is slowing down and showing signs of collapse due to climate change. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be drastically changed," said the lead researcher.
- Sudden Ocean Inundation: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic disintegrate quickly, flooding low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by infrastructure experts.
- Clean Air Warming: Temperatures could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from fossil fuel combustion reflect sunlight from warming the ground.
Building Resilience Against the Worst
The severe models could be used to inform the construction of critical national infrastructure, for example new towns, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Understanding these environmental threats could also accelerate the push to cut carbon pollution.
The study created the severe projections using a blend of past data and records, digital projections and scientific theory. The scenarios exclude international cascading effects such as the global food shortages and increased conflict.
The research was requested as part of a government’s adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have warned that not enough attention was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.
The government's climate advisors has stated that the UK needs to "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the threats for 4C. Past policy documents have been described as being "very weak" by some observers.
An official statement noted: "Global warming is at the core of our national priorities, both building resilience and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the effects."